Make your own free website on Tripod.com

Buckeyes and Sabermetrics
Run Estimators
Home
Ohio
OSU Football
OSU Hoops
OSU Baseball
OSU Hockey
Sabermetrics
Links
Recommendations
Contact Me

This page covers some run estimators.  It by no means includes all of the run estimators, of which there are dozens.  I may add some more descriptions at a later time.  Anyway, Base Runs and Linear Weights are the most important and relevant.  Equivalent Runs is often misunderstood.  Appraised Runs is my twist on the funny looking, flawed, but no more so than Runs Created method of Mike Gimbel.
 
I guess I'll also use this page to make some general comments about run estimators that I may expand upon in the future.  I posted these comments on Primer in response to an article by Chris Dial saying that we should use RC(or at least that it was ok as an accepted standard) and in which me mentioned something or the other about it being easy to understand for the average fan:
 

If you want a run statistic that the general public will understand, wouldn't it be better to have one that you can explain what the structure represents?

 

Any baseball fan should be able to understand that runs = baserunners *% of baserunners who score + home runs.  Then you can explain that baserunners and home runs are known, and that we have to estimate % who score, and the estimate we have for it may not look pretty, but it's the best we've been able to do so far, and that we are still looking for a better estimator.  So, you've given them:

1. an equation that they can understand and know to be true

2. an admission that we don't know everything

3. a better estimator than RC

 

And I think the "average" fan would have a much easier time understanding that the average value of a single is 1/2 a run, the average value of a walk is 1/3 of a run, the average value of an out is -1/10 of a run, then that complicated, fatally flawed, and complex RC equation.  But to each his own I suppose.

 

I will also add that the statement that "all RC methods are right" is simply false IMO.  It is true that there is room for different approaches.  But, for instance, RC and BsR both purport to model team runs scored in a non-linear fashion.  They can't both be equally right. The real answer is that neither of them are "right"; but one is more "right" than the other, and that is clearly BsR.  But which is more right, BsR or LW?  Depends on what you are trying to measure.

 

Accuracy

Appraised Runs

Base Runs

Base Runs(total rewrite)

Equivalent Runs

Linear Weights

Runs Created

Theoretical Team Base Runs